2010 Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th Annual Big Ten Conference Tournament gets underway on Thursday, March 11th from Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. Purdue is the defending tournament champion, having topped Ohio State in last year's title tilt, 65-61. It was the Boilermakers' first-ever Big Ten Tournament championship, leaving four teams (five if you count Michigan's vacated title in 1998) still to claim the crown.

The top five seeds in this year's event received byes through to the quarterfinals, leaving six teams to battle in the opening round on Thursday. Three teams finished with identical 14-4 league ledgers, as Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State all had solid seasons and shared the Big Ten's regular- season title. The Buckeyes received the top seed in the tournament as they won the tie-breaker, and the Boilermakers and Spartans were given the second and third seeds, respectively.

The first game of the event pits eighth-seeded Michigan against ninth-seeded Iowa. The winner advances to play Ohio State on Friday afternoon. The Wolverines (14-16, 7-11) limp into the postseason having lost four of their last five games, and they have performed poorly outside of Ann Arbor all season, going just 3-8 in true road games and 4-10 when you factor in a 1-2 mark in neutral-site affairs. UM, which has a record of 5-10 all-time in the Big Ten tourney, boasts two double-digit scorers in the form of Manny Harris (17.7 ppg, 4.1 apg) and DeShawn Sims (16.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg), both All-Big Ten performers who finished the regular season ranked in the top-five on the league's scoring list. The team as a whole is netting just 64.4 ppg and shooting a mere 41.5 percent from the floor to rank 10th in the conference in both categories.

As for the Hawkeyes (10-21, 4-14), they had a season they would rather forget. Struggles at both ends of the court hurt the team, as it averages a league-low 60.8 ppg while surrendering 66.2 ppg to rank ninth. Additionally, Iowa ranks last in the Big Ten in turnover margin (-2.74) and doesn't have a player ranked in the top-15 on the league's scoring chart. Matt Gatens (12.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.3 apg) and Aaron Fuller (9.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) both received All-Big Ten Honorable Mention honors, but neither is capable of carrying a team. The Hawkeyes, who have two Big Ten Tournament titles to their credit with the last coming in 2006, comes into this event having dropped five of their last six games and nine of their last 11 overall. They lost twice to Michigan during the regular season.

The second game of the opening round features a matchup between seventh-seeded Northwestern and 10th-seeded Indiana. The winner of that bout moves on to face Purdue in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats (19-12, 7-11), who are just 4-12 all-time in this event and have never won the championship, had a solid campaign, although they would have liked to have performed better in conference. Northwestern is a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of scoring (69.5 ppg), but the team does have a star in sophomore forward John Shurna (18.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg). A better than 46 percent shooter in each of his first two collegiate seasons, Shurna recently picked up All-Big Ten Second-Team honors. NU defends the three-point shot better than any team in the conference (.315), and the team ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (1.5) as well.

The Hoosiers (10-20, 4-14) had an absolutely dreadful season, and they carried an 11-game losing streak going into the regular-season finale against this same Northwestern squad. Fortunately for Indiana, it was able to post an 88-80 overtime victory over the Wildcats at home to stop the slide. The loss of Maurice Creek (knee injury) after a dozen games hurt the team as the talented rookie was averaging 16.4 ppg. Verdell Jones III (14.8 ppg) and Christian Watford (12.1 ppg) are the only active players netting double figures on a consistent basis, and the Hoosiers, who are 8-12 all-time in the Big Ten Tournament and have yet to don the crown, rank last in the league in assists (12.2 apg), assist/turnover margin (0.8) and scoring defense (71.4 ppg).

The final game of the opening round has sixth-seeded Minnesota trying to stave off the upset bid of 11th-seeded Penn State. The winner will move into the quarterfinals to take on Michigan State. The Golden Gophers (18-12, 9-9) enter the postseason having alternated wins and losses over their last four games. Tubby Smith's team, which took out Penn State twice during the regular season, is the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten (.401), and as a result ranks second in the conference in scoring (73.4 ppg). The Gophers rank first in blocked shots (5.7 bpg) and assists (17.2 apg), and second in field goal percentage defense (.400). Lawrence Westbrook (12.9 ppg), Blake Hoffarber (10.7 ppg) and Damian Johnson (10.3 ppg) are all averaging double figures in scoring for the Gophers, who are seeking their first-ever Big Ten Tournament title.

The Nittany Lions (11-19, 3-15) have yet to raise the trophy in this event as well, and they have won just six of their previous 18 tourney tilts. Penn State put up fights against two of the teams that shared the league's regular- season title in its last two games, losing by a combined six points to Michigan State and Purdue. Prior to that, it had won three of four so the Lions are clearly playing better as they look to extend their season a bit longer. PSU boasts just one double-digit point producer on the roster, as Talor Battle (18.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.2 apg) leads the team in all three major statistical categories and ranks second in the conference in scoring. The team as a whole is producing just 65.3 ppg to rank ninth in the Big Ten, and its 64.3 ppg yield has it ranked seventh.

Fourth-seeded Wisconsin battles fifth-seeded Illinois in the quarterfinals on Friday, with the winner taking on the victor in the Michigan/Iowa vs. Ohio State game in the semis on Saturday. These same two teams met in the 2008 title tilt with UW prevailing in a 61-48 final to give the club its second Big Ten Tournament championship. The Badgers (23-7, 13-5), who have appeared in four of the last six title games, come into this postseason riding a four-game win streak, and they took care of this same Illinois squad in the regular- season finale in Champaign this past Sunday, 72-57. Although it has four double-digit scorers in the fold, UW's strength, as has been the case in virtually every year of coach Bo Ryan's tenure, is its defensive play as foes are scoring just 56.1 ppg -- the lowest yield in the league. The Badgers are the best free-throw shooting team in the Big Ten, led by Jason Bohannon's 86.6 percent effort. Trevon Hughes (15.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Jon Leuer (14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg) are the team's top two scorers, and they, along with Bohannon (12.0 ppg), were recently named All-Big Ten performers.

As for the Fighting Illini (18-13, 10-8), they had somewhat of a down year despite winning some big games along the way. Boasting four double-digit scorers led by All-Big Ten First Teamer Demetri McCamey (14.9 ppg, league- leading 6.8 apg), Illinois is averaging 70.5 ppg while allowing 66.5 ppg. The team is tops in the conference in field goal percentage defense (.399), while coming in second in defending the three-point shot (.316). In addition to McCamey, the Illini also have another award-winning player in the form of Big Ten Freshman of the Year D.J. Richardson (10.3 ppg, team-best 55 treys). Mike Tisdale (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 51 blocked shots) and Mike Davis (10.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) are both productive guys, and give coach Bruce Weber a solid quartet on which to rely. Illinois has the best tournament record of any team in the Big Ten (22-10), and the Illini have two titles to their credit, the most recent coming in 2005.

Ohio State (24-7, 14-4) boasts the Big Ten Player of the Year in Evan Turner (19.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 5.8 apg), who despite missing five games with a broken bone in his back, dominated the competition almost every time he took the floor. Three other OSU players averaged double digits in scoring during the regular season, as Turner made those around him better. William Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg) picked up All-Big Ten Third-Team honors, and coach Thad Matta was voted the league's Coach of the Year by the media. The Buckeyes, who have played in three of the last four league tourney title games, are the conference's top scoring team (73.5 ppg) and they rank second in scoring defense (60.4 ppg). At 49.4 percent from the field and 37.9 percent out on the perimeter, there isn't much this Ohio State team doesn't do well. OSU is 15-10 all-time in the Big Ten Tournament, winning two titles along the way (2002, 2007).

As mentioned in the opening, Purdue (26-4, 14-4) is the defending Big Ten Tournament champion, and comes into this year's event having won 12 of its last 13 games. Not surprising considering the overall talent coach Matt Painter (Big Ten Coach of the Year as voted by his peers) has assembled, but somewhat so when you factor in the fact that one of the team's best players, Robbie Hummel (15.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .902 free-throw percentage), suffered a serious knee injury a couple of weeks ago. Still, Hummel, along with teammate E'Twaun Moore (16.7 ppg, 86 assists, 42 steals), was named to the All-Big Ten First Team. Purdue owns the league's third-best scoring margin (+11.5), and is tops in turnover margin (+4.90).

Michigan State (24-7, 14-4) closed out the regular season by winning two straight and four of its last five games overall, giving coach Tom Izzo's club some momentum as it attempts to win its third Big Ten Tournament title, and its first since claiming back-to-back crowns in 1999-2000. MSU owns a 13-10 record in the event, but hasn't appeared in the championship game since 2000. Kalin Lucas (14.9 ppg, 4.0 apg) is an All-Big Ten First-Team selection, and he highlights a group of four players averaging double digits for the Spartans, who are putting up 73.1 ppg while permitting 63.9 ppg. Rebounding is Michigan State's strength as it owns a +9.3 rpg advantage -- far and away the largest margin in the conference.

Wwwiisportsbook NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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