Falcons Could Face End of an Era In Philly

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday afternoon's contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons could have postseason implications for one team, both teams, or neither team. No matter the scenario, there will be some intriguing storylines at play, not the least of which is the possible final game on the Atlanta sideline for head coach Jim Mora, who is widely believed to be on the hot seat.

The Eagles locked up a playoff berth with their shocking 23-7 road rout of the Dallas Cowboys on Christmas evening. Andy Reid's team, which is 4-1 since quarterback Jeff Garcia took over as starter for the ailing Donovan McNabb, can claim its fifth NFC East title in the last six years with either a win over Atlanta or a Cowboys loss to Detroit in a 1pm Eastern game on Sunday. Should either occur, Philadelphia would be the No. 3 seed in the NFC and face whatever 8-8 team rises to the top of a contentious hunt for the No. 6 spot.

An Eagles loss and Dallas win on Sunday would force Philly to travel to NFC West Champion Seattle in the opening playoff round.

Atlanta's road to the postseason has a number of major obstacles, with the first coming Saturday night in Washington. The Falcons would need the Redskins to upset the Giants in order for Mora and company to remain alive in the playoff hunt, and would also need the Panthers to lose at the Saints in a 1pm game on Sunday. If both of those needs are met, and Atlanta can get by Philadelphia on the road, the Falcons would then require a Green Bay loss at Chicago in order to squeeze into the NFC's sixth position.

The more likely scenario has Atlanta playing the role of spoiler on Sunday, and also playing for its embattled coach. The Falcons' underachieving on-field ways of the past two seasons and a number of offseason distractions concerning Mora have reportedly put the third-year coach on shaky ground with team owner Arthur Blank, and there has been widespread speculation that anything short of a deep playoff run will not save Mora's job.

SERIES HISTORY

The Eagles hold a 11-10-1 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Falcons, but were 14-10 road losers in the last such meeting, a Monday Night matchup in Week 1 of the 2005 campaign. Philadelphia had won the two previous regular season meetings, in Atlanta in 2003 and at Veterans Stadium in 2000. The Falcons have not won in Philly since 1988.

In addition to their regular season advantage, the Eagles are 2-1 against the Falcons in the playoffs. Philadelphia was a 27-10 winner in the 2004 NFC Championship, defeated the Falcons, 20-6, in a 2002 NFC Divisional Playoff, and dropped a 14-13 road decision in a 1978 NFC First-Round Playoff.

Reid is 4-1 as a head coach against Atlanta, including the two aforementioned playoff wins. The Falcons' Mora is 1-1 against both Philadelphia and Reid.

FALCONS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE

Though their season is likely to go down as disappointing, the Falcons and their top-ranked rushing offense (185.3 yards per game) did not fail to leave their impression on the record books in 2006. With his 32 rushing yards in last week's 10-3 loss to the Panthers, Atlanta's Michael Vick (1022 rushing yards, 2 TD) became the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season, while he and running back Warrick Dunn (1082 rushing yards, 4 TD, 19 receptions) became the first teammates since the Browns' Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner in 1985 to go over 1,000 in the same campaign. Still, the day was a struggle for the Falcons offense, as the team was well below its usual standard with just 83 ground yards, including 29 on nine totes from Dunn and 20 on five carries from rookie Jerious Norwood (570 rushing yards, 2 TD). Norwood is the most recent Atlanta player to surpass 100 yards in a game, a feat he achieved against the Redskins in Week 13. Vick has totaled just 93 ground yards in his past three games combined.

The Eagles continue to face a perception of being soft against the run, a stigma that the team's rank of 26th in NFL rushing defense (134.9 yards per game) would seem to support. But Philadelphia has tightened up in that area against the Giants and Cowboys over the past two weeks, holding two teams with more than one rushing threat under 100 ground yards. The Eagles have received stronger work from tackles Darwin Walker (36 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Patterson (49 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who combined for six stops and a sack (by Walker) in the Dallas win, and have gotten help from linebackers Jeremiah Trotter (112 tackles, 1 INT) and Omar Gaither (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). Trotter had five tackles versus the Cowboys, and the rookie Gaither posted four stops in his fourth NFL start.

Those who feel that Vick (2393 passing yards, 19 TD, 13 INT) will never be a consistent NFL passer got more ammunition for their argument last week, when the sixth-year-pro completed just 9-of-20 passes for 109 yards with a pair of interceptions. It marked the third time in the last five games that Vick has failed to complete 10 passes. Vick, who carries a passer rating of 74.9 into Sunday's game, does have a career-high 19 touchdown passes on the year. Wideouts and former first-round draft picks Roddy White (26 receptions) and Michael Jenkins (37 receptions, 7 TD) were held to one catch each in the Carolina loss, and Ashley Lelie (28 receptions, 1 TD) paced all pass-catchers on the day with three grabs totaling 40 yards. Lelie (separated shoulder) is out for Sunday. Tight end Alge Crumpler (50 receptions, 7 TD), the team leader in receptions and yards, had three grabs for 49 yards. Vick was sacked three times against Carolina, and has now been dropped 42 times on the year, the seventh-highest figure in the league. The Falcons remain last in the NFL in passing offense (143.5 yards per game).

If Atlanta could figure out a way to get its passing game on track, it might be able to fuel a victory over a Philadelphia team that has some concerns in the secondary heading into Week 17. Cornerbacks Lito Sheppard (back), William James (calf), and strong safety Michael Lewis (knee) are all listed as questionable for Sunday, which could leave Pro Bowl-bound free safety Brian Dawkins (90 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) to do more work than usual against the Falcons. Dawkins has been on fire of late, tallying his third interception in four weeks against the Cowboys on Monday. Sheppard (30 tackles, 6 INT) also notched a pick in Dallas, increasing his team lead in that category, while Sean Considine posted three tackles in place of Lewis (57 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT). Ends Trent Cole (62 tackles, 8 sacks, 1 INT) and Darren Howard (35 tackles, 5 sacks) will be among those chasing Vick on Sunday. Howard recorded his fifth sack of the year in the Cowboys win. The Eagles are currently 10th in the NFL versus the pass (189.9 yards per game).

EAGLES OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE

Just one week shy of his first playoff appearance since 2002 is Eagles quarterback Jeff Garcia (1280 passing yards, 10 TD, 2 INT), who has taken Philadelphia by storm with his heady play of the last four weeks. The veteran posted his fifth straight passer rating of 90.0 or better on Monday, when he completed 15-of-23 throws for 238 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Garcia also accumulated 43 yards on rushes, his best ground total since leaving San Francisco after the 2003 season. Wideouts Reggie Brown (46 receptions, 8 TD), Donte' Stallworth (38 receptions, 5 TD), tight end L.J. Smith (50 receptions, 5 TD) and running back Brian Westbrook (76 receptions, 4 TD) have all been major factors in the passing game. Smith had a game-high 77 yards on just two catches in Dallas, while Brown and Stallworth posted three grabs each. No. 2 tight end Matt Schobel (12 receptions, 1 TD) caught Garcia's lone TD of the day, which also ranked as Schobel's first score as an Eagle. The Philly line surrendered two sacks in Dallas, and has surrendered a total of 28 on the year.

One of the prime disappointments for Atlanta this season is the work of a defense that ranks 25th in the league against the pass despite the offseason additions of strong safety Lawyer Milloy (94 tackles, 2 sacks) and end John Abraham (17 tackles, 4 sacks). Milloy's presence couldn't prop up a secondary that has had struggles with injuries and inconsistency for much of the year, while Abraham missed seven games due to injury earlier in the year and was double-teamed when he returned thanks to the season-ending pectoral injury sustained by opposite end Patrick Kerney (16 tackles, 4.5 sacks). The best cover man in the secondary has been cornerback DeAngelo Hall (57 tackles, 4 INT), who is headed back to the Pro Bowl, while the best pass-rusher on the club has been tackle Rod Coleman (6 sacks). Coleman had one of three sacks of the Panthers' Chris Weinke last Sunday.

Just days after suffering a shocking and unjust Pro Bowl snub, Westbrook (1214 rushing yards, 7 TD) made the Cowboys pay to the tune of 122 yards on 26 carries. Westbrook's 26 totes were the most of his five-year NFL career, and the yardage total ranked only behind a 124-yard day in Indianapolis in Week 12 on his personal chart. Also effective in Dallas was change-of-pace back Correll Buckhalter (344 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 3 TD), who carried eight times for 38 yards, scored his second touchdown in as many weeks, and added a 13-yard catch out of the backfield. Following last week's 204-yard ground assault, the Eagles moved up to ninth in the league in rushing offense (129.4 yards per game).

Atlanta enters Week 17 ranked a healthy 10th in the league against the run (107.6 yards per game), though the Falcons were physically pounded in that area by the Panthers last week. Carolina running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams combined for 184 yards on 49 carries on the day, with their work resulting in a more-than-23-minute disparity in time of possession. Atlanta will need more presence at the point of attack from tackles Coleman (24 tackles) and Grady Jackson (32 tackles) this week, especially with starting linebackers Edgerton Hartwell (33 tackles, 1 sack) and Michael Boley (84 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) regarded as questionable due to knee and hamstring injuries, respectively. Ol' reliable Keith Brooking (129 tackles, 2.5 sacks) will be a part of the linebacking corps on Sunday, one week after the veteran notched nine tackles against the Panthers.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Eagles are heavy favorites in this game, an odd circumstance for a team that has played extremely well over the past two weeks but is far from dominant. Philadelphia still has some major flaws that can be exposed by a quality coaching staff such as that of Atlanta, and is bound to start making the mistakes here and there that largely eluded the team against the Giants and Cowboys. There is little reason to expect that the Falcons won't hang around in this game, though in the fourth quarter, there is every reason to expect the confident Eagles to make one more big play than will Atlanta.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Eagles 19, Falcons 17