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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It won't be the first-, second-, or 13th most intriguing battle on the Week 17 schedule, but the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns will play a football game on Sunday afternoon at Reliant Stadium, and someone, somewhere, is bound to be entertained.
No playoff positions will be determined when the 5-10 Texans and 4-11 Browns square off, though there will be a handful of lower-stakes storylines.
With a victory, Houston will have recorded its sixth win of the season, which would triple last year's total of two victories and would give the young franchise the second-winningest campaign in its history. The Texans, who scored arguably the most important triumph in team annals by defeating the AFC South Champion Colts (27-24) last Sunday, also have a chance to win their first-ever season finale, as well as notching their first back-to-back victories since Weeks 15-16 of the 2004 campaign.
Cleveland, meanwhile, will be trying to avoid carrying a four-game losing streak into the offseason, and will also be looking to make Ken Dorsey's first start in a Browns uniform a victorious one.
Dorsey, who started 10 games as a member of the 49ers in 2004-05, will be subbing for the injured Charlie Frye (wrist) and Derek Anderson (shoulder), both of whom have been knocked out of the quarterback picture during an inglorious December. Anderson was injured late in last week's 22-7 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dorsey is Cleveland's 11th starting quarterback since the franchise was re- born in 1999, and its sixth since 2004.
The Browns have won their regular season finale in each of the past four years, including a 22-14 upset win over the Texans in '04.
SERIES HISTORY
Cleveland is 2-1 all-time against Houston, with last year's 19-16 loss at Reliant Stadium marking its first series defeat. The Browns prevailed by a 34-17 margin at home during the 2002 season, and as mentioned, won 22-14 on the road in Week 17 of the 2004 campaign.
Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel is 1-0 in his career against the Texans, while Houston's Gary Kubiak will be meeting both Crennel and the Browns for the first time as a head coach.
BROWNS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE
Dorsey has taken exactly two live snaps as Cleveland's quarterback, suffering a sack on a 3rd-and-22 play against the Bucs and throwing an incomplete pass on the ensuing 4th-and-29. The fourth-year-pro out of Miami-Florida is 2-8 in his starting career, including 1-5 on the road, and has an NFL lifetime passer rating of 63.5. Dorsey threw for 175 yards without a touchdown and one interception during the preseason for the Browns. The new signal-caller will need to involve his two problem child targets - wideout Braylon Edwards (57 receptions, 6 TD) and tight end Kellen Winslow (78 receptions, 3 TD) - early this week, or risk facing the wrath of both outspoken players. Edwards was benched at the start of last week's game, reportedly for missing a team meeting, while Winslow was seen receiving a dressing-down from Crennel on the sideline after complaining about a lack of opportunities with Anderson in the game. Edwards and Winslow both had two catches last week, while Joe Jurevicius (40 receptions, 3 TD), who along with Winslow (knee) is regarded as questionable for this week, led the team with four catches totaling 58 yards before suffering a concussion. The Cleveland line has surrendered 52 sacks on the year, including three last week.
The Texans did a reasonable job of bend-but-don't-break against the Colts' vaunted passing game, allowing Peyton Manning to complete 21-of-27 passes with three touchdowns but surrendering a reasonable 205 yards through the air. That performance was a notable achievement for a Houston club that now ranks 24th in NFL passing defense (217.7 yards per game), 30th in interceptions (10), and tied for 26th in sacks (27). Rookie end and No. 1 overall draft pick Mario Williams (45 tackles, 4.5 sacks) did not manage his first sack in seven weeks, though he did force a Dominic Rhodes fumble that was recovered by fellow end Anthony Weaver (35 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and converted by the Texans into a touchdown. In the secondary, free safety C.C. Brown (74 tackles, 1 sack) posted a team-high seven tackles, and top corner Dunta Robinson (76 tackles, 1 INT) limited Reggie Wayne to three receptions for 27 yards. On the injury front, Weaver will miss this week's game with a shoulder injury, likely spelling more snaps for Antwan Peek (9 tackles, 1 sack) and/or Jason Babin (25 tackles, 5 sacks).
The Browns received some rare production from their 31st-ranked running game (80.5 yards per game) last week, with Reuben Droughns (675 rushing yards, 4 TD, 24 receptions) contributing 92 yards on 19 carries in what was his best rushing day in nearly two months. Droughns could be seeing his final start as Cleveland's running back this week, as the Browns are expected to address their obvious rushing needs in the offseason. With former backup Jason Wright having been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury Dec. 19th, rookie Jerome Harrison (62 rushing yards, 9 receptions) is set to serve as Droughns' backup again on Sunday. Harrison was active but did not have a touch against Tampa Bay.
Seeking to make his final argument for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors this week will be Texans middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans (145 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT), who has been among the league's surest tacklers in 2006. The second-round pick out of Alabama has eight double-digit tackles performances this year, though he had a streak of games with 10 or more stops ended with an eight-tackle day against the Colts last Sunday. Fellow linebacker Morlon Greenwood (99 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had five tackles in the Indianapolis win, and defensive tackle Anthony Maddox (28 tackles, 1 sack) led the interior line with four stops. After the Colts' Joseph Addai rushed 15 times for 100 yards as part of a 114-yard rushing effort last Sunday, the Texans now rank 20th in NFL rushing defense (121.9 yards per game).
TEXANS OFFENSE VS. BROWNS DEFENSE
Among the NFL's most-overlooked feel-good stories this year has been the renaissance of running back Ron Dayne (612 rushing yards, 5 TD, 14 receptions), who has come on of late to prove his worth as an NFL rusher. The 1999 Heisman Trophy Winner rushed for a career-best 153 yards on 32 carries with a pair of touchdown runs against the Colts last week, and is within striking distance of his first 700-yard season since his rookie campaign of 2000 with the Giants. Dayne, who is averaging 107.3 yards and has scored five touchdowns in his last four games, has gone for a healthy 4.1 yards per carry in 2006. The Texans gave undrafted rookie Chris Taylor a chance to spell Dayne last week, and Taylor accumulated 52 yards on 10 total touches. Fullback Vonta Leach (4 receptions, 1 TD) was the recipient of David Carr's second touchdown pass in nine games, which was also the first TD of Leach's NFL career. Wali Lundy (473 rushing yards, 4 TD, 32 receptions) was active but did not have a touch last week, and fellow ex-starter Samkon Gado (217 rushing yards, 1 TD, 16 receptions) was inactive for a fourth straight game.
Dayne is in line for another big day against a Cleveland front seven that allowed the Buccaneers' formerly-pathetic ground game to run wild last Sunday. Playing without starting rusher Cadillac Williams, the Buccaneers moved the chains with three different running backs who totaled 154 yards on 43 carries. Part of the problem was the absence of inside linebacker Andra Davis (104 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), who was suffering with a concussion and is unlikely to play against the Texans. Also questionable for this week is Chaun Thompson (29 tackles, 2 sacks), who started in Davis' place alongside rookie Leon Williams (35 tackles, 1 sack) last week. Williams, who posted a game-high 14 tackles and a sack versus Tampa Bay, will have to be active against the run again on Sunday. Up front, interior linemen Ted Washington (49 tackles) and Simon Fraser (31 tackles, 4.5 sacks) combined for 11 tackles in a losing cause against the Bucs. The Browns enter Week 17 ranked 30th in the league against the rush (145.3 yards per game).
Carr (2681 passing yards, 11 TD, 11 INT) has one more chance to prove himself to Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith this week, though frankly, it might be too late. The former No. 1 overall pick has simply not been consistently productive in his fifth season in the league, with his two-touchdown, seven- interception performance of the last nine weeks telling the tale. A lack of receiving help has not been the problem, as Pro Bowler Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 5 TD) just went over the 100-catch mark for the season in last week's win, No. 2 wideout Eric Moulds (55 receptions, 1 TD) has played generally well in his first year with Houston, and Owen Daniels (34 receptions, 5 TD) has been the league's most productive rookie tight end. Protection has remained something of a problem, though the 40 sacks that Carr has absorbed this year are the second-fewest of his career. Daniels, who missed the Indianapolis game with a shoulder problem, is questionable for Sunday. Mark Bruener (8 receptions, 2 TD) had a couple of catches in his place last week.
The Browns do have some building blocks in the area of pass defense, where young players like rookie outside linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (59 tackles), strong safety Sean Jones (104 tackles, 5 INT, 0.5 sacks), and cornerback Daven Holly (57 tackles, 4 INT) all look like they might be capable NFL starters. Wimbley paced the formerly-deficient pass rush with his ninth and 10th sacks of the season last week, also recording eight tackles and forcing a Tim Rattay fumble which was returned 40 yards by Holly for Cleveland's only touchdown of the day. Jones went over 100 tackles for the season on an afternoon in which he posted 13 stops, while Holly notched his fourth interception of the year to go along with his second defensive touchdown of '06. The Browns will get a boost if cornerback Leigh Bodden (30 tackles, 2 INT), who missed the Tampa game with an ankle injury, is able to return on Sunday. Bodden is listed as questionable.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Both of these teams smell an opportunity for an encouraging victory to carry into the offseason, which means this tilt figures to be played with slightly more passion than you might expect from participants with a combined 9-21 record. The Texans are subject to a bit of a letdown following last Sunday's watershed victory, but they should still prevail due in large part to a healthier offensive attack. Cleveland's Ken Dorsey era figures to begin, and end, with a loss.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Texans 16, Browns 13
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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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